EFFECTS OF FLOOD ON FOOD SECURITY OF ARABLE FARMERS IN NIGERIA

Abstract

The study assessed the effects and determinants of flood-induced food insecurity among 401 randomly selected arable farmers in Nigeria. Employing a multi-analytical approach, the study utilised the Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES), a Generalized Propensity Score (GPS) model to estimate a continuous dose-response function, and a Tobit regression for determinant analysis. Results revealed that the mean FIES score was 0.806, with majority (55%) of farmers experiencing severe food insecurity. The negative linear coefficient for flood (-0.00751, p<0.01) and the positive quadratic term (6.59e-05, p<0.01) revealed that food insecurity initially decreases slightly with minimal flooding but then increases at an accelerating rate as flood coverage. Crucially, Tobit regression analysis identifies key mediating factors: access to agricultural credit, extension services, and input subsidies, significantly mitigated food insecurity (-0.194, p<0.01; -0.186, p<0.01 and 0.252, p<0.05 respectively). Conversely, larger household size, population ageing, and being a female household head were associated with increased food insecurity (0.003, p<0.01; 0.101, p<0.01 and -0.168, p<0.01 respectively). The study concludes that while flood extent directly drives food insecurity, institutional resources (credit, extension, subsidies) significantly buffer this effect, whereas demographic pressures amplify it. Hence, flood impacts are contingent on farmers’ access to support systems, not just on hazard exposure. We provide actionable policy recommendations, advocating for the proactive scaling of credit, extension, and subsidy programmes, and the implementation of demographically-sensitive, intensity-targeted disaster response protocols to build systemic resilience and safeguard national food systems against escalating climatic shocks.